Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
